ANC leadership race really a contest between Ramaphosa and Zuma

Twelve months ago, I had no doubt that  the national conference of the African National Congress (ANC) would elect Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as president of the ruling party and successor to President Jacob Zuma. Today, a day before the commencement of the conference, I am not so sure. In the past year, the momentum has swung towards Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa – away from Dlamini-Zuma. Why? The momentum for Ramaphosa is a momentum for change. To some extent, the momentum is independent from Ramaphosa. In other words, the hunger and appetite for change inside the ANC and in the country has become a critical component of the groundswell of antipathy towards Zuma. So strong has this wave of antipathy become that it is quite possible that the anything-but-Zuma impulse is stronger than the anything-but-Mbeki impulse of a decade ago.