A year of two truths for zinc as new supply responds to tight market

This calendar year is expected to tell a tale of two outcomes for zinc as tight first-half concentrates and declining metal stocks contrast against new supply coming on stream and building concentrate levels. CRU Group analyst Ryan Cochrane foresees the real cash price of zinc building towards a crescendo this year, approaching $4 000/t, before falling back sharply at first, and then gradually back to below the $2 500/t-level by 2022. Significant zinc concentrate surpluses of more than two-million tonnes will emerge from then onwards, as the smelter capacity response is much slower than the forecast growth rate.